Bailout Signed; Market Falls; Fiddlesticks and Candlesticks

Finally, it gone done.  After days of recriminations between each other and trying to divine the will of the voters at home, the Members of the House – as a body, not necessarily individually – agreed on a bailout package which the Senate had already approved, whereupon the President signed it immediately.

 

Please note the phrase “which the Senate had already approved.” This is the reverse of the way appropriation bills usually work in Congress.  Can it be said, in this case, that rational adults prevailed over roistering children?

 

The entire episode was marked by a remarkable lack of leadership.  It would seem that the President was slow to understand the enormity of the problem – that it might bring down the entire financial latticework of the country, and thereupon spread beyond our shores.  One can almost imagine a midnight telephone call from the Harvard MBA on Pennsylvania Avenue to the Dairy Queen owner in Omaha – “Warren, could you please explain to me what this is all about?  I don’t understand why this is such a serious problem.”  If the truth were ever to be known, the Dairy Queen owner from Omaha probably had more to do with resolution of the problem than any other person’s input, stepping up to the plate –as he did – with massive infusions of capital into GE and Goldman Sachs, thereby steadying everyone and demonstrating a large degree of confidence.  At a stiff price, to be sure.  This is Bottom Fishing 101, and it isn’t taught at Harvard.

 

The probable vote tally in the House was closely known long before the market’s close.  The Speaker had said that she would not allow the matter to be brought to the floor unless a favorable vote were assured.  Even in light of that assurance and the final vote, the market remained unimpressed.  The Dow Industrials, for instance, lost 157 points on the day; and prices did not stop falling until finally stabilizing 10 minutes before the final bell.  What do the Candlestick patterns tell us about prospects for Monday?

 

After such a persistent fall throughout the latter half of the session, accompanied by a solid dash to lower levels almost to the close, prices left in their trail on the 10-minute chart an impressive series of black Candlestick bars, some of them quite tall; so that one could reasonably infer that prices on Monday will continue downward with some force.

 

I would like to posit a contrary view.  The final 10-minute Candlestick bar is an “Inverted Hammer.”  If prices close higher in the first ten-minute segment on Monday, I think that there is a chance that prices will close higher on Monday than they did today.  Furthermore, and more compellingly, our Indicators (when applied to the Daily chart) show that prices are ready to rebound.  A rebound might not come on Monday, but I think it will come soon thereafter.

 

None of this is intended to intimate that, regardless of the strength of any rebound, the bull will have returned.  Not so.  The bull was interred last October.

 

William Kurtz        October 3, 2008          

About the Author

Author publishes investment advisory newsletter. Passed NASD Series 65 Investment Adviser exam. Retired atty. and corporate CEO. Creator of "Candelaabra" technical analysis system for use in all financial markets. http://www.candlewave.com

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